We’ve written a number of times [here and here and here] about the emerging industry dynamics that are propelling solar energy up a truly compelling disruptive trajectory. As the signals become increasingly clear that solar will indeed be a significant energy technology, billions of dollars of investment have poured into the industry and the pace and scale of innovation has exploded.
A terrific recent post on Treehugger.com, a leading cataloguer of emerging sustainability innovations of all kinds, recaps 15 exciting advances in photovoltaics over the last year. The majority of the advances relate to the ongoing conversion efficiency race, as companies and labs working with different base technologies seek to design cells that convert sunlight into power in ever more effective, and therefore cost-effective, ways. Conventional silicon-based solar cells are getting closer and closer to their target of grid parity, at which point they figure to displace conventional sources of electricity without relying on government subsidies and incentives.
Meanwhile, disruptive thin film-based solar panels are nearing “good enough” efficiency – performance rates at which they become economically viable. Some, led by industry pioneer First Solar, have already reached that point, and have grown astronomically as a result.
Beyond the efficiency race, the Treehugger post recounts exciting adjacent developments like radically new approaches to mounting solar cells and breakthrough printing processes to mass manufacture them.
With all these exciting developments, how can we begin to sort killer businesses from the fascinating technologies that will never make it out of the lab? We’d start with a couple of core disruptive innovation principles.
First, we’d like to see innovation efforts directed at the business model as well as the technology. Historically, business model innovations that make the consumption of a new technology easier, cheaper, more accessible or more convenient have been the best predictor of success in an emerging industry. Think of the way that Apple created iTunes to definitively separate the iPod from all the other MP3 players.
Some technologies are different enough from the herd to really lend themselves to new business model approaches. One can imagine all sorts of avenues for CoolEarth’s solar balloons, for example. By freeing solar collectors from their rigid mounts, CoolEarth can take the capability to produce clean and renewable power to new contexts, such as the developing world.
Second, we’d look to ride disruptive waves. Industry leading silicon-based cells have plenty of headroom to grow, and many of the companies that make them will likely enjoy lots of success in the years to come, but thin film manufacturers are nipping at incumbents’ heels. There are signals that the disruptive wave is picking up steam: SunPower, one of the foremost silicon-based incumbents, received a huge new order a few weeks back from California utility PG&E; significantly, though, they only got a fraction of the contract – the lion’s share went to new thin film player OptiSolar.
The advantages inherent in the thin film paradigm (flexibility, lower cost manufacturing via reel-to-reel “printing” rather than semiconductor fabrication) will assert themselves as technologies approach economic viability. Thin film will exert more and more cost pressure on conventional solar, and could also open up new markets that silicon-based cells just can’t reach.
Meanwhile, the next disruptive wave after thin film is beginning to gather, as so called organic solar cells being developed by companies like Konarka make their way into initial foothold applications.
So, how should one monitor an explosively dynamic, fast moving, ascendant yet bubble-prone field like solar? Try to spot developing waves, watch carefully for signals that disruption is underway, and all the while pay special attention to companies that innovate with their business models, not just their technologies.